Is It Over or Has It Just Begun?
If you are a member of Jill Long Thompson’s campaign staff, you have my deepest sympathies. A new Howey-Gauge poll of 600 likely registered voters shows Republican Mitch Daniels with an 18-point lead with 60 days to go in the Governor’s race.
The poll showed Daniels leading 53-35 over JLT. Libertarian Andy Horning had 3-percent and the undecides were at 9-percent.
JLT’s name ID had gone up from 42 to 77 percent, however she only went up two percent in the polls. There is also more evidence of the “Obamacans,” voters who plan to vote for Democrat Barack Obama and Daniels. He enjoys 27-percent of Obama’s support.
The poll also shows John McCain and Barack Obama virtually tied at 45-43 percent, respectively. The poll was released tonight at the Greater Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce’s Hob Nob.
Although 60 days is a long time and anything can happen, the closer we inch to November 4 the harder it will be for things to turn for JLT.
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If you check the poll you will see that it vastly undersampled Northern and Southern Indiana and oversample Central Indiana. Also some of the people they called do not even live in Indiana. So I would be very hesitant to believe this poll. Plus if he is only at 53% with Central Indiana making up 43% of the callers surveyed I think he is the one that needs to make up ground. Plus the market gauge polls have a history of being way off the mark. If they wernt Dan Burton would have been renominated in a landslide. Instead of the squeaker that he ended up with.
I won’t argue that Howey’s polls aren’t often way off-base. (Like Howey’s reporting, but that’s another story.)
However, I believe the undersample here came from Southern Indiana, which is not a strong region for Thompson.
Unless she kicks this campaign into gear and works on her political image as well as her name ID, I think this is a pretty steep hill for her to climb over the next 60 days.