Although he was an early backer of John McCain in the primary, Gov. Mitch Daniels has put plenty of distance between himself and the Arizona Senator’s presidential campaign in recent months.

Further proof: He won’t be speaking at or attending GOP veep nominee Sarah Palin’s rally tomorrow in Jeffersonville.

“I’m going by (the Palin rally.) I’ve got another event scheduled at the same time, but it is close by, so I’m going to go by and spend as long as I can there and hang out in the parking lot and spend some time with the folks standing in line or patiently waiting to get in,” Daniels said. “I’m not speaking at the rally, no.”

Daniels said that he wasn’t being critical of the campaign of Republican presidential Sen. John McCain, of whom Daniels was an early supporter. But, he said, “when they only give us 48 hours’ notice … we plan a little further out than that. I’ve not been willing to cancel on people who have made plans in preparation for our coming.”

An artful dodge, to be sure, but the truth is Daniels needs Barack Obama way more than he needs McCain. Obama voters, if you believe the polls, are crossing over in large numbers to vote for Daniels over Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson.

Abdul and I will be making our political predictions on this week’s edition of Capitol Watch, but I won’t spoil anything by telling you that I believe we’ll see Indiana voters split their tickets the other way ’round for the first time in two decades.

Daniels is a shrewd politician, and he lives by the rule that no one is looking out for you but you. He wants to win, and he can see McCain isn’t the wagon to which he should hitch his star. He’s not a team player by any stretch of the imagination, and this particular calculation looks like it will probably pay off for him on Nov. 4.

A side note: Those of you who followed the 2006 cycle will recall that Daniels, woefully unpopular at the time, went underground for six weeks prior to the election. He cut no ads. He did no mail. He allowed members of his own party to throw him under the bus. It failed insomuch as Republicans lost the House anyway, but his absence was both notable and noticeable.

These days, the Republican statewide candidates and some targeted House candidates (”Randy & Mitch”! It could be a cutesy preschool educational show if only Randy knew how to spell the word “representative”) are feeling good enough about his re-election chances that they’re using him in their television spots.

What a difference two years — and millions of dollars in fluffy ads — can make.