It’s becoming obvious that ticket-splitting will be the order of the day in Indiana in 2008.  You can tell driving through some neighborhoods, where you see signs for Barack Obama and Mitch Daniels in the same yard.  And the polls indicate the same thing very clearly.  Obama may not beat John McCain in Indiana. (He was two points behind in the latest poll Tuesday.)  But few will dispute that at the very least he will come at lot closer than any Democrat in recent memory.  And the gubernatorial polls appear to show Daniels pulling away from the underfunded Jill Long Thompson.

  The question is:  Are these basically Democratic voters who are switching sides on the gubernatorial race to vote for Daniels?  Or Republican voters changing sides at the top to vote for Obama?  It’s important, because of the way it affects the down-ticket races, especially the minor state offices and the legislature.  If it’s Obama voters scratching for Daniels, Democrats stand a much better chance of keeping control of the House.  If it’s Republican voters scratching for Obama, Republicans still have a chance to win back the House majority.

  And there’s still the possibility of a third force at work here.  What if Obama supporters who’ve been drawn into this election specifically to vote for him simply fill in the blank by his name and then turn in their ballot without voting for anybody else?  If that happens, Obama could still do very well without helping other Democrats at all.