President Obama’s stimulus plan is batting about .093.  Obama claims that $46 billion in spending has created or saved 150,000 jobs so far over a period of time when the country has lost $1.6 million jobs.  Rather than send the plan back to the minors for some work, he announced today that he’s ramping up spending to get money out the door more quickly.

It turns out that the plan is having the opposite effect.  The administration estimated that without the stimulus bill unemployment would top 9% by 2010, it’s 9.4% today.  If the stimulus bill passed, they claimed unemployment would hit 8% today and fall about 1% per year until 2013 when it would bottom out under 5%.  So if the Obama estimates were accurate, we’d have lower unemployment today had they done nothing.

But Obama didn’t become president because he doesn’t get the politics.  Sure, he has an expectations problem right now, but he’s always had an expectations problem.   Remember, this was the guy who was going to come into office and pay your mortgage and fill your car with gas.  When it cames to stimulus, he remembered that promising the unprovable is the benchmark of any good spending plan.

During the first 100 days since being signed into law, the administration claims that measure has saved or created 150,000 jobs. As spending ramps up over the next 100 days, the bill is expected to save or create an additional 600,000 jobs, the White House said (emphasis added). – Washington Post

The “saved” part of “saved or created” is critical rhetoric for Obama when describing his jobs plan.  It’s his political parachute, the answer to statistics that point out, at its best, spending more does nothing.  At its worst it is hurting the economy.  Without qualifying his promise of what spending will deliver, one could rely on silly things like facts to measure the return on taxpayer investment from stimulus.

“Saved” is the boogeyman of the Obama economic recovery strategy.  ”Saved” gives him cover to claim whatever he wants about the results of historic spending and debt, it’s immeasurable, ambiguous, and politically malliable.  It ensures that once the economy recovers, as economies always do, he can claim victory on the battlefield of spending and do more of it.