Okay, it’s almost time to count the votes. That means it’s time for predictions. So here goes.

PRESIDENT—Indiana is a real toss-up, with Barack Obama having the best chance to win it for the Democrats for the first time in 44 years. But it would really be only a historical footnote. If Obama means here, it means he would be putting together a landslide victory nationwide. Not necessary a Johnson, Nixon, Reagan type landslide. He can’t do that without Texas, which he isn’t gonna win. But at least an Eisenhower-Bush the First type of landslide. And that seems increasingly likely. Although some polls (not all) show John McCain creeping closer in the popular vote (Ask Al Gore how important that is.), he isn’t making much headway in the Electoral College. Obama has big leads in enough Bush 2004 states to pass 270, while McCain, despite his repeated Pennsylvania appearances, doesn’t seem likely to take away any Kerry 2004 states. And that assumes he holds Ohio and Florida, which is a huge assumption.

WINNER—Obama

GOVERNOR—This race ended in early September when Democrat Jill Long Thompson went off the air for over a month. You can’t win when you’re invisible. And, yes, I know people bring up the Greg Ballard example. He had no money and no visibility, but won because enough people were mad at Bart Peterson. But governor isn’t mayor. Knocking on doors doesn’t cut it in a statewide race. Long Thompson went off the air, of course, because she had no money. And that was because her campaign had been so lackluster up until then. She calculated that enough people were mad at Mitch Daniels that simply spreading the message “I’m not Mitch” would work. It didn’t. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race. But while at least some early polls showed Long Thompson with a chance, the recent ones only disagree on how far ahead Daniels is. Obama’s coattails will make this respectable for Democrats, but that’s about it.

WINNER—Daniels

STATE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT—Polls show Republican Tony Bennett leading Democrat Richard Wood. This will depend largely on coattails.

WINNER—Bennett

ATTORNEY GENERAL—Because of a personal, family-related conflict, I have not covered this race and will not offer a prediction.

7th DISTRICT CONGRESS—Andre Carson has quickly become a more polished campaigner. Meanwhile Gabrielle Campo has been largely invisible since her opening “I Can’t Answer Any Questions Today” news conference. She may be an up-and-comer, but not this year and not this race.

WINNER—Carson

GETTING RID OF TOWNSHIP ASSESSORS—It’s impossible to predict this race, because it’s really 43 separate races in the state’s biggest townships. Even here in Marion County, where eight of the nine townships will have this on the ballot (Decatur wasn’t big enough and is already losing its township assessor), it isn’t a single race. It will be decided separately in each township, which means you could have any possible combination of townships with and without assessors.

Gov. Mitch Daniels, who pretty much threw his own party’s presidential nominee under the bus last month, will introduce John and Cindy McCain at their brief airport appearance tomorrow.

Daniels had a campaign presence at but personally skipped fellow Gov. Sarah Palin’s wingnut get-togethers in Indiana, but way back when, insiders will remember he was a staunch McCain backer.

So, why is he suddenly showing up at the tail end of the campaign? A few thoughts:

No harm, no foul: Looking at the electoral map, McCain is probably going to lose on Tuesday. Daniels is likely to win and win big. What the heck does he care if he stands next to McCain and plays nicey-nice with the partisans?

One day to go: Daniels’ intro will be swallowed up by the larger story that McCain finally came back to Indiana, which will be swallowed up by the larger story that the election is on Tuesday. At best, it’s a media blip.

Full recovery: Daniels is feeling cocky enough to show up in Statehouse and statewide candidates’ television spots and mail pieces. His approval rating, after months of advertising and a politically impotent opponent, has rebounded. Where he was a drag on the ticket two years ago, he might actually be able to help McCain in the final 24 hours.

Boredom: Election eve is a stressful time for any politico. Maybe Daniels just wanted to get out of the house.

My problem with Daylight Saving Time has never been that we’re on it, but that Gov. Mitch Daniels promised us things during his 2004 campaign that never came true.

Chiefly, that our state would be on one time zone, and that time zone would be Central.

Frankly, I’m not all that concerned about the latter part, but it doesn’t seem like our system is any better now than it used to be.

Also, I’m glad he dropped his “DST means economic development” talking points this year. That was a silly argument, and looking at our economy, it just plain isn’t true.

DST is a pain two days a year, and today is one of those two days. I also have a slightly new perspective on it because our little one — 11 months this week — has no idea that the clocks changed, so she just got up when she felt like getting up.

This means a nap for Mommy later today is most certainly in the offing.

But DST as a campaign issue? Two years ago, yes. Two days from this year’s election? Nope.

That’s not to say there aren’t plenty of folks out there who are ticked off about it, but in the grand scheme of things — economy, health care, education, our overcomplicated system of local government, energy, ethics, etc. — I’m going to file this in the “wedge issue” category alongside guns, gays and abortion.

Daniels is still shady for the way he thrust it upon us and then punted to the feds, but I can’t say that I’m all that concerned about it now.

I got this tonight from the JLT campaign.  All I can say is thank God this race will be over in 72 hours.

 

Dear Friend,

Sunday morning at 2:00 a.m., Hoosiers across the state will be moving their clocks back one hour, thanks to Mitch Daniels and his one-sided decision making style. His approach to the issue of Daylight Savings Time has left too many Hoosiers in the dark.

As Governor, Jill will work for a statewide referendum on the issue of Daylight Savings Time, so that the voices of all Hoosiers can be heard. She believes that with your input, we can create a policy that better suits the needs of Indiana.

It’s time to change more than our clocks.  It’s time to change our Governor.

Sincerely,

Travis Lowe
Campaign Manager
Hoosiers for Jill

P.S. November 4th is almost here and we need your help getting out the vote.  Can you spare a few hours on or before Election Day? Click here to volunteer: http://www.hoosiersforjill.com/page/s/election.

 

The Indianapolis Star and the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics both released poll numbers today indicating that the Guv’s race is over. The Star has Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson down by 18 points; the Downs Center shows her trailing by 17 points. I still think this one will wind up around 10 percent because of the Obama factor.

Speaking of Obama, the Star poll showed yesterday that he and John McCain are in a dead heat. The Downs Center poll shows the two candidates tied at 47 percent.

The Downs Center also polled the other two statewide races.

In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Greg Zoeller leads Democrat Linda Pence 46 percent to 42 percent. Republican Tony Bennett leads Democrat Richard Wood 45 percent to 41 percent in the race for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

What does all this mean?

The two down-ballot statewide races are tied to Obama’s turnout and performance; the Guv’s race is the result of a nearly flawless campaign by incumbent Mitch Daniels and a nearly nonexistent campaign by Thompson.