Capitol Watchblog
Capitol Watchblog
jennifer
Oct
6
8:33 AM

We’ve Been Warned

The senior advisers and talking heads told us over the weekend that John McCain is going to attack.

He’s going to “refocus” his message on Democratic opponent Barack Obama, who spent the last three weeks leaping ahead in the polls in the wake of several McCain gaffes.

Instead of talking about the economy, which he doesn’t understand, or health care, which he doesn’t want to invest in, McCain is going to talk about Obama’s character.

Be prepared: We’re going to be returning to the “Barry Hussein Obama is a secret gay Muslim” rhetoric.

It’s all they have left.

McCain and his ongoing joke of a running mate went all in and came up short. The only thing they can do is destroy their opponent, who’s connecting with the American people because this campaign is actually about the issues.

(Side note: Want to read something interesting? Check out this Rolling Stone cover story on the exaggerations that are John McCain’s past. It contains some saucy language, but it’s a good read.)

Will it work? You never know. The GOP has lobbed mudballs and stolen elections before. But something tells me this is different. We’ve had eight years of fabrications and wingnut attacks on our senses and sensibilities.

I think this line of campaigning could backfire on McCain, but he’s at a point where he has no choice. He’s shot from the hip one too many times, and he’s all mavericked out. Back to the drawing board.

abdul
Oct
5
8:27 PM

It’s Obama’s To Lose, For Now

That is my prediction of the Presidential race with 30 days to go.  Feel free to cheer, scream, whatever.  I’ll still be here to explain my analysis.

Welcome back.

Okay, here’s my rationale.

Although the national polls have Obama with a 5-7 point lead, it’s state polls that matter because of the Electoral College.

By my count based on polling data, voter registration and the general mood of the electorate, Obama has 259 Electoral votes while John McCain has 160.  119 are up in the air.  Obama wins the Northeast, Upper Midwest and West Coasts.  McCain wins most of the South, and the Plains states and most of the Rocky Mountains.

The battle ground states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada.  New Hampshire and Florida notwithstanding, the path to the White House literally cuts across the center of the United States.

To win, McCain has to literally sweep Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virgina, Indiana and Missouri.  He has only four ways to get to 270 while Obama has 11 combinations.  McCain needs to win 110 out of the 119 Electoral votes.   Obama only needs 11 out of 119.

What complicates matters for McCain is all the states in play are place where George W. won.

Of course there are still two debates to go and there could always be a national emergency that puts foreign affairs back in the spotlight.  And in politics, a day is a lifetime and anything can happen.

But if the election were held today Obama would be Commander-in-Chief.

jennifer
Oct
3
6:07 PM

Strange Allies With Warring Hearts

Faced with a presidential race that’s all tied up in Indiana, the Guv’s promoters have been chattering about a creature whose birth no one could ever have predicted: the Obama-Daniels voter.

Republicans I’ve talked to think that up to 25 percent of Obama’s supporters will swing to support Mitch Daniels in November.

But Daniels was one of McCain’s earliest supporters, right? Won’t he go to the mat to make sure Indiana turns presidential red at two minutes past six on election night? A story reported tonight by WRTV’s Rick Hightower makes it pretty clear that the Guv is in it for himself:

“He’d better win here, or I’d say his national chances aren’t good at all,” Daniels said of McCain. He went on to say that “I told them at the outset I have a full-time job, and my mind is on the problems of Indiana, that I would be happy to lend my name, but they couldn’t really count on me to spend much time on things, and they’ve held up their end of that bargain.”

Average Hoosiers might not pick up on the significance of these comments, but this says to me that Daniels has thrown McCain under the bus because his fortunes depend far more on Obama’s fate here.

The Guv’s been running a change campaign of his own, and he can’t afford to have John W. Bush and Mrs. Dick Cheney II screw it up for him.

Meanwhile, Obama will be in town next Wednesday. Perhaps Daniels will consider a joint appearance?

jennifer
Oct
3
8:49 AM

Thursday: An Exploration Of Superlatives

There was lots of political news made yesterday, but I don’t want to bore you with five different posts, so let’s navigate the headlines this way…

Scariest Veep Debate Moment: Sarah Palin clearly does not understand the U.S. Constitution or the powers of the office she is seeking. If elected, she essentially promised to out-Dick Cheney Dick Cheney. The only folks that’s good news for are the makers of man-sized safes.

Best Veep Debate Moment: I’m not one to get overly emotional, but Joe Biden caught me off-guard when he talked about losing his wife in a car crash and wondering if his kids were going to make it. In that 30 seconds, he stole a lot of Palin’s “vote for me because I have five kids” mojo, and she didn’t even realize it was happening.

Worst Political Timing: Indiana House Republicans picked yesterday to unveil their 2009 legislative agenda. Um, did no one tell them there was something going on in St. Louis?

Strangest Priority In The House Republicans’ 2009 Legislative Agenda: Drill, baby, drill. Yeah, that’s right. Part of the Indiana House Republicans agenda is support for drilling in Alaska. I’m pretty sure we already have bipartisan consensus on this issue. Not to mention the fact that it has nothing to do with our Statehouse.

Best Political Timing: The McCain campaign, knowing the veep debate would dominate the news cycle, slipped in the fact that they’re cutting and running from Michigan, a state they once thought they could win. Instead, they’re having to focus efforts on traditionally red states like Indiana, where they took history for granted and now find themselves neck-and-neck in the polls.

Upcoming Event That Should Be Good For A Few Laughs: “A game show, ‘Wait! I Know the Answer’ will be held Oct. 11 at the Indy BookTalk Conference, which benefits Lawrence Township schools’ literacy programs. The quiz pits Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard against Lawrence Mayor Paul Ricketts and others hosted by Dick Wolfsie.”

jennifer
Oct
3
7:56 AM

It’s Change We Can Believe In Because It’s Change We Can Define

Upon further reflection, and after a discussion with State Rep. Jackie Walorski on Abdul’s radio show this morning, I’ve determined that there’s one question Republicans can’t — and don’t want to — answer: How is John McCain different from George W. Bush?

Same tax breaks for Big Oil, big corporations and the ultra-rich. No tax breaks for the middle class. (McCain, proud owner of six more homes than most folks, can’t even say the words “middle class” without visibly wincing.) Same strategy — or lack thereof — in Iraq. Same health care policies that come up short for average Americans. More and more and more of the same.

But a funny thing happens when you ask a Republican to talk about change: They start talking about Barack Obama.

When I asked Rep. Walorski to tell me the difference between McCain and Bush this morning, she couldn’t think of anything other than to resort to her talking points about Barack Obama as a big, scary tax guy.

Of course, we all know that’s not true. Obama’s plan would provide for tax breaks for 95 percent of America, and the other 5 percent, who are doing just fine, mind you, wouldn’t pay any more than they did under Ronald Reagan, who, according to an informal survey of Republicans, was the bestest President of all time.

Last night, when Gov. Sarah Palin was asked to differentiate between McCain and Dubya, she went into her “let’s talk about the future” dance.

One problem, as Biden adeptly pointed out: Past is prologue.

McCain and Palin are all about change because some poll told them to talk about change. They’re hoping talking points and the once-shiny-but-increasingly-cloying-and-annoying Celebrity Veep Pick will fool the American public into four more years.

We’re smarter than that.

But don’t take my word for it. Just ask any Republican to define McCain’s version of change. I bet you five bucks he or she starts talking about Barack Obama.

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