Did Jon Elrod blow two races for the Republicans when he made his stunning withdrawal from the 7th District Congressional race on Wednesday?  His pull-out leaves the party with no candidate in the race against rookie Democrat Andre Carson.  Elrod seemed to be saying he couldn’t win that race, calling it a “long shot.”  But could anybody else do any better, given the late start on both name recognition and fund-raising?

Of course, if a really big GOP name could be induced to enter the race, that might change.  But the name many party leaders are hoping for, Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi, sent word through an aide that he won’t be a candidate.  And with many Republicans hunkering down to ride out what they fear is a coming Democratic tidal wave, finding a replacement who could introduce himself to voters in less than four and a half months won’t be easy.

The other race in peril is the 97th District state House race, which Elrod technically still holds.  Having abandoned his Congressional ambitions, Elrod is seeking to get back into the contest for his legislative district.  Technically, it won’t be hard, since nobody ran and the slot is vacant.

  But Elrod faces this teeny-tiny problem:  He’s already told those constituents he doesn’t want the job anymore.  And no amount of rationalizing about how he relishes the challenges facing the upcoming General Assembly is likely to make them forget that. 

His Democratic opponent, Mary Ann Sullivan, has been working hard for months and is rated a strong contender.  And she’s already challenging Elrod to make a pledge that he will serve the entire two-year term.  Since Elrod is a first-termer who won his normally Democratic district by less than a dozen votes in 2006, none of this bodes well for him to hold that seat for Republicans.

There was a forum tonight at the Light of the World Church featuring the candidates for Congress. Since the race is on the Democratic side, that’s where I’ll focus my attention. The main four candidates (you know who they are) all agreed that faith matters to voters and it people of faith have a role to play in politics, while still keeping up the “wall” of church and state.

They all also agreed that moral issues are than the tired debate, in my opinion, over abortion and same-sex marriage. They also agreed that a person’s religion should not be held against them, but instead voters should look at their actions. What I took from the debate, at least for now, that the two front-runners are Andre Carson and Dr. Woody Myers. Carson has his natural base and Myers has the media presence.

What I think their race will come down are this year’s 56,000 voters who have either updated their registration or are voting for the first time in Marion County. They are looking like the king maker, more and more.

My advice to the candidates, pray.

I’ve been making some calls about Barack Obama and Andre Carson’s endorsements of each other and the members of the political class I spoke with all seem to agree that the race is now Carson’s to lose.

Obama will likely win the the 7th District by a strong margin over Hillary Clinton and there was nothing in it for Carson to support Clinton. If anything, he would have probably lost votes to one of his other three main competitors. By tying his name to Obama, Carson hopes to keep some of those voters (mainly the new ones) and get them to keep their ballot long enough to vote for him. I argue this shows the race is probably a lot closer than anyone feels comfortable with. Also, it will be interesting to see the impact on Dr. Woody Myers’ campaign, because he has been targeting new voters with his commercials.

A few other things to keep in mind, first if you are Jim Schellinger or Jill Long Thompson, you want those new voters to stick around and vote for you and not turn in their ballots after voting for the President or Congress.

Second, Karl Rove was in town yesterday for a fundraiser for Mike Sodrel. He told the small crowd that Obama would be his candidate of choice, because Republicans could compete better against him in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Be careful what you wish for.

And this 7th Congressional District candidate would be happy to get any attention.

I’m hearing 7th District Congressman and candidate Andre Carson may endorse Barack Obama today. Carson has been on the fence for a few months every time I asked him. Carson is also a super delegate.

A formal endorsement would also signal a tight race in the 7th and by supporting Obama, Carson would be endearing himself to the 7th District Democratic voters where polls show Obama is winning overwhelmingly against Hillary Clinton.

  So was Andre Carson a landslide winner, or not?  That’s the question after Saturday’s 7th District Democratic caucus to select a candidate for the March 11th special election to succeed the late Congresswoman Julia Carson.

  I’ve seen reports saying Carson “eked” out a “narrow” victory because he had only eight votes more than the majority needed.  On the other hand, his 223 votes were 100 more than the runner-up, State Rep. David Orentlicher.  I think anytime someone wins a first-ballot victory in an eight-person field when an absolute majority is required, it’s pretty impressive.

  Saturday also showed that you can’t always believe what you hear.  As the candidates were being introduced, all of us political reporters were straining to hear who had the most applause.  It appeared to be Carson.  But State Rep. Carolene Mays seemed to be a close second, yet she finished far back in the voting.  (It did seem that a lot of her applause came from the guest section in the balcony, not from the main floor where the voters were seated.)  And there was only a smattering of applause for the runner-up, Orentlicher.

  So now it’s on to the special election, where Carson will be favored to succeed his grandmother.  It’s a Democratic district, and he has the legacy.  But Republican Jon Elrod does have a reputation for winning in Democratic areas, so we’ll have to wait and see.

  And even then, it won’t be over.  Remember, this is just the preliminary, the election for Julia Carson’s unexpired term.  The two-year election follows.  And since those candidates will be chosen in the regular primary in May by voters, not by political chairs at a caucus, the dynamics could be entirely different.  Some of the losing candidates from Saturday will drop out.  And others who didn’t run then may now enter the race.  By November, we may think we’re reliving Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day”, because it’ll seem we wake up every day to another election in the 7th District.