The last day of a legislative session is always filled with mystery and intrigue.  But this year’s is breaking all records on those two counts.

First off, what happened to yesterday’s agreement on the state budget?  We were told that House Democrats and Senate Republicans were in substantial agreement and just needed to “tweak” it by a hundred million dollars or so.  That should be a piece of cake in a $28 billion budget.  But now, 24 hours later, nothing has been accomplished. 

Republicans want to reduce the amount of new money for schools (Note, that isn’t CUTTING schools, it’s reducing their NEW money.)  But Democrats say no and insist on finding the hundred million elsewhere.  Except that Ways and Means Chairman Bill Crawford says there isn’t that much elsewhere to trim.  So it would have to come from schools, something for which Democrats will not stand.

 All this because Republicans have suddenly decided that the $1.3 billion surplus that Gov. Daniels has said is his bottom line all session is now not enough.  They want $1.4 billion.  Is that something they’ve come up with?  Or is it Daniels stirring the pot at the last second? 

Meanwhile, what is happening with the unemployment bill?  Yesterday we were assured there was a deal.  Now, once again, Republicans are talking about tweaking.  But tweaking what?  If it’s the no-cut-in-benefits provisions, Democrats will flush the whole bill.

And, of course, there’s always that big mystery.  What’s happening with the C.I.B. bailout.  We keep hearing from sponsors that new ideas are being circulated.  But what are they?  And are there any that might excite anybody.  Here’s an early prediction.  Without a last-minute stand by Marion County lawmakers and/or Mayor Greg Ballard, legislators from outside Central Indiana will just go home and let the C.I.B., the mayor, and the Colts and Pacers stew in their own juices.

It looks like lawmakers have reached an agreement on the issue I had thought would be the most difficult…unemployment insurance.  Rep. David Niezgodski, (D) South Bend, told me just a few minutes ago that a conference committee report has been agreed to by negotiators for the four caucuses, although it won’t be binding until the caucuses themselves approve it. 

The U.I. bill would raise about $700 million of the estimated $1 billion the state is going in the hole for this year by borrowing from Washington to pay benefits.  Niezgodski says all sides came to the realization that it wouldn’t be possible to dig all the way out in one year without bankrupting business in Indiana.

The bill will raise U.I. taxes on business by $400 million and seek to lower spending by $300 million by closing loopholes that allow people who shouldn’t be eligible to receive benefits and by reducing outright fraud.  However, it does not reduce benefits to eligible workers or reclassify building trades workers as seasonal employees who would be ineligible for benefits.  That, as you recall, was the whole point of yesterday’s massive rally by hardhats at the Statehouse. 

This isn’t signed, sealed, and delivered yet.  Since this seems like a major Democratic victory, I still won’t declare this issue over until the two Republican caucuses sign on.  But Democrats are optimistic that they’ve laid this issue to rest.