Okay, it’s almost time to count the votes. That means it’s time for predictions. So here goes.

PRESIDENT—Indiana is a real toss-up, with Barack Obama having the best chance to win it for the Democrats for the first time in 44 years. But it would really be only a historical footnote. If Obama means here, it means he would be putting together a landslide victory nationwide. Not necessary a Johnson, Nixon, Reagan type landslide. He can’t do that without Texas, which he isn’t gonna win. But at least an Eisenhower-Bush the First type of landslide. And that seems increasingly likely. Although some polls (not all) show John McCain creeping closer in the popular vote (Ask Al Gore how important that is.), he isn’t making much headway in the Electoral College. Obama has big leads in enough Bush 2004 states to pass 270, while McCain, despite his repeated Pennsylvania appearances, doesn’t seem likely to take away any Kerry 2004 states. And that assumes he holds Ohio and Florida, which is a huge assumption.

WINNER—Obama

GOVERNOR—This race ended in early September when Democrat Jill Long Thompson went off the air for over a month. You can’t win when you’re invisible. And, yes, I know people bring up the Greg Ballard example. He had no money and no visibility, but won because enough people were mad at Bart Peterson. But governor isn’t mayor. Knocking on doors doesn’t cut it in a statewide race. Long Thompson went off the air, of course, because she had no money. And that was because her campaign had been so lackluster up until then. She calculated that enough people were mad at Mitch Daniels that simply spreading the message “I’m not Mitch” would work. It didn’t. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race. But while at least some early polls showed Long Thompson with a chance, the recent ones only disagree on how far ahead Daniels is. Obama’s coattails will make this respectable for Democrats, but that’s about it.

WINNER—Daniels

STATE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT—Polls show Republican Tony Bennett leading Democrat Richard Wood. This will depend largely on coattails.

WINNER—Bennett

ATTORNEY GENERAL—Because of a personal, family-related conflict, I have not covered this race and will not offer a prediction.

7th DISTRICT CONGRESS—Andre Carson has quickly become a more polished campaigner. Meanwhile Gabrielle Campo has been largely invisible since her opening “I Can’t Answer Any Questions Today” news conference. She may be an up-and-comer, but not this year and not this race.

WINNER—Carson

GETTING RID OF TOWNSHIP ASSESSORS—It’s impossible to predict this race, because it’s really 43 separate races in the state’s biggest townships. Even here in Marion County, where eight of the nine townships will have this on the ballot (Decatur wasn’t big enough and is already losing its township assessor), it isn’t a single race. It will be decided separately in each township, which means you could have any possible combination of townships with and without assessors.

7th District  Republican congressional candidate Gabrielle Campo says she was kicked out of an eastside  community event by a supporter of Democrat Andre Carson.

Campo says she was at the Far Eastside Family Fun Day at 36th and Mitthoeffer.  The event is sponsored by the Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service.  Campo says she was there and approached Carson about a debate.  According to Campo, Carson said he had a busy schedule.  Later, Campo says, she was approached by the event organizer who was a Carson supporter and told to leave.

Campo says out of respect for the event, she complied with the request.  

I do have to say I’m a bit surprised that this would happen especially when it’s the policy of the Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service that all persons have equal opportunity and access to its educational services, activities, and facilities without regard to race, religion, color, sex, age, national origin or ancestry, marital status, parental status, sexual orientation, disability or status as a veteran.  Apparently political beliefs didn’t make the list.

  It looks like Republicans are finally going to get a candidate in the Seventh District race.  That’s the one from which Jon Elrod bailed after determining he didn’t have a snowball’s chance of unseating newly-elected Democrat Andre Carson.

  Newcomer Gabrielle Campo has scheduled an announcement for Monday morning at the City Market.  She will only say that it involves the Seventh District.  But since she’s the person District Chairman John Hammond has been pushing from the start, it’s fairly safe to say she’ll be announcing her candidacy.

  The only question is why it took so long.  Elrod quit the race on June 18th, almost a month ago.  Anyone declaring that day would have been way behind in gaining name recognition and raising money.  Campo is now even further behind.

  So what’s the reason for running now?  To gain name recognition for a later race, even though there’s little or no hope of winning this one?  Possibly.