Okay, it’s almost time to count the votes. That means it’s time for predictions. So here goes.

PRESIDENT—Indiana is a real toss-up, with Barack Obama having the best chance to win it for the Democrats for the first time in 44 years. But it would really be only a historical footnote. If Obama means here, it means he would be putting together a landslide victory nationwide. Not necessary a Johnson, Nixon, Reagan type landslide. He can’t do that without Texas, which he isn’t gonna win. But at least an Eisenhower-Bush the First type of landslide. And that seems increasingly likely. Although some polls (not all) show John McCain creeping closer in the popular vote (Ask Al Gore how important that is.), he isn’t making much headway in the Electoral College. Obama has big leads in enough Bush 2004 states to pass 270, while McCain, despite his repeated Pennsylvania appearances, doesn’t seem likely to take away any Kerry 2004 states. And that assumes he holds Ohio and Florida, which is a huge assumption.

WINNER—Obama

GOVERNOR—This race ended in early September when Democrat Jill Long Thompson went off the air for over a month. You can’t win when you’re invisible. And, yes, I know people bring up the Greg Ballard example. He had no money and no visibility, but won because enough people were mad at Bart Peterson. But governor isn’t mayor. Knocking on doors doesn’t cut it in a statewide race. Long Thompson went off the air, of course, because she had no money. And that was because her campaign had been so lackluster up until then. She calculated that enough people were mad at Mitch Daniels that simply spreading the message “I’m not Mitch” would work. It didn’t. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race. But while at least some early polls showed Long Thompson with a chance, the recent ones only disagree on how far ahead Daniels is. Obama’s coattails will make this respectable for Democrats, but that’s about it.

WINNER—Daniels

STATE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT—Polls show Republican Tony Bennett leading Democrat Richard Wood. This will depend largely on coattails.

WINNER—Bennett

ATTORNEY GENERAL—Because of a personal, family-related conflict, I have not covered this race and will not offer a prediction.

7th DISTRICT CONGRESS—Andre Carson has quickly become a more polished campaigner. Meanwhile Gabrielle Campo has been largely invisible since her opening “I Can’t Answer Any Questions Today” news conference. She may be an up-and-comer, but not this year and not this race.

WINNER—Carson

GETTING RID OF TOWNSHIP ASSESSORS—It’s impossible to predict this race, because it’s really 43 separate races in the state’s biggest townships. Even here in Marion County, where eight of the nine townships will have this on the ballot (Decatur wasn’t big enough and is already losing its township assessor), it isn’t a single race. It will be decided separately in each township, which means you could have any possible combination of townships with and without assessors.

7th District  Republican congressional candidate Gabrielle Campo says she was kicked out of an eastside  community event by a supporter of Democrat Andre Carson.

Campo says she was at the Far Eastside Family Fun Day at 36th and Mitthoeffer.  The event is sponsored by the Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service.  Campo says she was there and approached Carson about a debate.  According to Campo, Carson said he had a busy schedule.  Later, Campo says, she was approached by the event organizer who was a Carson supporter and told to leave.

Campo says out of respect for the event, she complied with the request.  

I do have to say I’m a bit surprised that this would happen especially when it’s the policy of the Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service that all persons have equal opportunity and access to its educational services, activities, and facilities without regard to race, religion, color, sex, age, national origin or ancestry, marital status, parental status, sexual orientation, disability or status as a veteran.  Apparently political beliefs didn’t make the list.

On the airwaves of this station last Friday night, my friend Abdul and I discussed the likely outcome in the Seventh District Congressional race between incumbent André Carson and political unknown Gabrielle Campo, the young social worker who was selected to take Jon Elrod’s spot on the ballot after Elrod abandoned his Congressional campaign.

I think Campo could be a rising star in her party, but it’s going to take a little more polish to get her there. Her campaign has fluctuated between nonexistent to nonsensical since she got in the race.

I think she was on stage for, like, 10 seconds during her first press conference, and one of her first public events was a trip in a hot air balloon. She’s not exactly connecting with real people, if you catch my drift.

Then, last week, Campo issued a seven-debate challenge to Carson. Nothing wrong with that. She’s looking for a little earned media, after all.

Unfortunately, Campo issued said challenge on Sept. 11, a day when even the presidential candidates appeared together at a memorial service and agreed in advance not to take any swipes at each other.

This is one of those unwritten political rules that apparently no one told Campo about: You get one day to call your own when you announce your campaign. Family members are off-limits unless they play into the political storyline. You don’t send out terms of political engagement on Sept. 11.

I suspect Campo’s in this race to raise her name ID and run for something else in the near future. In its current form, it’s not like Carson has to worry much about coming up short in the district. (We’ll see what happens when the maps are redrawn following the 2010 election and the term “backroom deal” takes on a life of its own.)

Still, someone higher up the Republican food chain should probably clue Campo in that while she’s cutting her teeth, she might want to focus on real issues, not hot air ballooning, and adhere to the few rules that still exist in this otherwise cutthroat world.

 Well, the Republicans have a candidate for the Seventh Congressional District.  They may have four, in fact, for Friday’s caucus of district precinct chairs to pick a replacement for Jon Elrod.  But after this morning’s performance by the favored candidate of party leaders, I’m still not sure what they have.

  Social Worker Gabrielle Campo, who I’m told made a good impression when running against Elrod earlier this year, announced her candidacy at an 11 a.m. news conference at City Market.  But after telling us who she is and what her priorities are (energy, jobs, and education—who’d have guessed), she bounded away without answering questions on any of them, saying she had to go file her papers.  When I asked her if she intended to leave without talking to the media, she hesitated, then said she could maybe stay for one question.  So I asked her how she would “rein in” (her words) energy prices.  She said she’d talk about that after the precinct caucus, then swept away again, this time not to be stopped.

  Seventh District Chairman John Hammond, who’s been pushing Campo, told me he was sure I could track her down and ask her questions.  But why would I do that?  She was right there, a candidate nobody knows without any money facing an incumbent Congressman in Andre Carson, and she wouldn’t answer reporters’ questions that might get her more valuable air time on the news tonight?

  Later Ms. Campo called me on the phone and said she’d been advised not to answer any questions until after the caucus.  When I asked her why someone would advise her to do that, she said she didn’t know.  Wouldn’t you think that if you were a precinct chair voting on your party’s candidate for something as important as Congress, you’d want to know where she stands?

  I’m told Campo is an unusual Republican candidate, one who’s ideal to run against Carson.  Is that code for “more liberal than the average Marion County Republican”?  If so, maybe that’s why she isn’t supposed to talk until after the very conservative precinct chairs vote.  But if that’s the case, maybe she shouldn’t have had a big splashy announcement and invited the media.