The Indianapolis Star and the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics both released poll numbers today indicating that the Guv’s race is over. The Star has Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson down by 18 points; the Downs Center shows her trailing by 17 points. I still think this one will wind up around 10 percent because of the Obama factor.

Speaking of Obama, the Star poll showed yesterday that he and John McCain are in a dead heat. The Downs Center poll shows the two candidates tied at 47 percent.

The Downs Center also polled the other two statewide races.

In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Greg Zoeller leads Democrat Linda Pence 46 percent to 42 percent. Republican Tony Bennett leads Democrat Richard Wood 45 percent to 41 percent in the race for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

What does all this mean?

The two down-ballot statewide races are tied to Obama’s turnout and performance; the Guv’s race is the result of a nearly flawless campaign by incumbent Mitch Daniels and a nearly nonexistent campaign by Thompson.

Great news for Democratic Attorney General candidate Linda Pence: Greg Zoeller is reportedly going off the air next week.

Rumor has it the national Republican AG’s group has pulled its funding for Zoeller after a tiff with the local folks about the direction of the campaign.

Zoeller and Pence have both been running ads a-plenty, but the race has largely been overshadowed by the presidential campaigns. This gives Pence a real opportunity to define herself in the last week, when plenty of independent voters will be making up their minds.

Here is this week’s Capitol Watch. Topics: The Obama/McCain dead heat, JLT with one of the worst ads in Indiana politics, and why some township assessors should be thrown in jail. Enjoy, and comment below.

Two hours after Democratic Attorney General candidate Linda Pence got her new ad up on YouTube, Republican challenger Greg Zoeller posted his first ad:

From a content standpoint, there’s nothing wrong with it, but Attorney General Steve Carter doesn’t have the most exciting speaking voice. Also, Linda Pence comes across as a complete prosecutorial badass in her spot. Zoeller? Not so much.

Attorney General candidate Linda Pence has a new ad out, and it’s darned good. Don’t know if it’s up on the airwaves, but it’s a 30-second spot, so my guess is that it will be soon.

Meanwhile, there’s still no word if or when Jill Long Thompson’s new ads will hit, but according to a campaign update, the gubernatorial candidate will be sharing the stage with Barack Obama at Wednesday’s rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds.