Capitol Watchblog
Capitol Watchblog
jennifer
Nov
7
9:29 AM

And The Winner Is…

The past two years have been quite the whirlwind in politics. We saw Indiana go from corn-fed red to Hooloovoo blue, and we felt for the first time what it was like to be a battleground state — the lights, the cameras, the ad revenue and the spectacle of politics laid at our doorstep.

Personally, I had time to get knocked up and have a now-11-month-old kid while both party’s candidates fought out the primary battle and inched closer to the finish line in what seemed to be the longest national contest ever.

Here in Indiana, we saw a vulnerable incumbent Governor buy his way from uninvited to golden child and win in a landslide.

We’ve seen changes at the local level — fewer assessors, different mayors — and a couple transitions at the Statehouse.

But it just wouldn’t feel like an election without a set of winners and losers, so let’s close out the week by doing what we do best: judging.

WINNERS

The Hoosier State: We basked in the electoral sun, and, oh, how good it felt to be appreciated and loved. Our votes mattered this year, and now that we’ve gone blue, I’m guessing we won’t be a fly-over state in 2012.

Democracy: Record numbers of people tuned in to watch the presidential and vice presidential debates, new voters lined up to register and cast their ballots and turnout soared. Something — whether it was eight years of being treated like pawns in a rigged chess game or a sense that all was not right in Washington — made us care again. Let’s hope we can maintain that level of interest going forward.

The Punditocracy: How many cable news networks created and promoted new political shows this cycle? Did Chuck Todd or Chris Cillizza ever sleep? Opinionation ruled the nation, and you couldn’t escape it. The constant chatter might have annoyed some viewers looking to plug in to traditional fluffy programming, but for those of us who live for polls and predictions, it was a time to celebrate.

Unlikely Democratic Candidates: If you were a Democrat, this wasn’t a bad year to be on the ballot. It wasn’t a landslide for the downticket types, but we certainly didn’t have to run from our party label like Republicans did.

The Thinking Voter: There were plenty of people who pulled straight-ticket, but there were also plenty of people, as evidenced by Mitch Daniels’ victory, who picked and chose the candidates they thought were best for each office. That’s kinda cool.

Howard Dean: I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my old boss. Before I became a political free agent, I was part of the Democratic National Committee’s “50 State Strategy,” which drew plenty of fire inside the Beltway for sending money to states like Indiana, where a Democratic presidential candidate hadn’t prevailed in 44 years. It was Dean’s brainchild, and he deserves credit for realizing that you can’t just play in the same old sandbox if you want to expand your win column. Three years after the first staffers were dispatched, there’s a lot more blue on that thar map.

Mighty Righty Talk Show Hosts: Their scare tactics didn’t work prior to the election, but they’ve got four years of new material. Assuming their heads don’t simultaneously implode on Inauguration Day, that is.

LOSERS

Conservative Republicans: Y’all got your veep pick, and she dragged the ticket down, down, down. Now, I blame John McCain for thoughtless pandering, but if you look at the big picture, voters weren’t interested in the wingnut, wedgewhack issues that the far-right tends to trot out when they’re losing on the big stuff. The message: Leave religion, abortion, gay marriage and race-baiting at the door, kids. We’ve got a country to fix.

Dubya: Pretty obvious pick, but our Commander in Chief went from “Mission Accomplished” to “Sit In The Corner And Don’t Touch Anything Until It’s Time To Leave” over the course of two terms. For 70 percent of this country, the door can’t hit him in the butt soon enough.

Oddsmakers: When a group of friends unveiled our pre-election picks earlier this week, it turned out we were all pretty far off-base. Now, that wasn’t such a bad thing from a partisan standpoint, but this election was anything but predictable.

Downticket Candidates: Yes, yes, I also listed them as winners, but the truth is that no one was paying attention to their races. Such is the effect of the long shadow a presidential race casts on the rest of the ballot. There might have been some good candidates on both sides who never saw the light of day because we were all so fixated on the White House.

The Old Regime: On both sides of the aisle, the people who do things the way they’ve always been done wound up acting the fool this time around. Obama’s campaign completely changed the landscape. Some folks realized it early on; others missed the boat.

Republican Political Staffers: The gravy train just ended for a lot of GOP up-and-comers on and around Capitol Hill — and the campaign rats who were hoping to land sweet gigs in a McCain administration. Transitions are neat for the party assuming power.

That’s all I’ve got for the time being. Feel free to add your suggestions to the list.

As soon as I get over my post-election depression, I’m going to ready myself for the start of a legislative session and return to closely watching what’s going on right here in Central Indiana.

jennifer
Nov
6
3:50 PM

Capitol Watch 11/06

Here is this week’s Capitol Watch, with our analysis on Tuesday’s election results.


jennifer
Nov
6
9:24 AM

Reflections On The Speechifying

I’m one of those people who likes to chew on things before passing judgment, but I wanted to take a minute to comment on the concession and acceptance speeches we saw on Tuesday night:

John McCain: I was bowled over by his eloquence and his statesmanlike demeanor. Johnny Mac gets big points for going out with grace and style.

Barack Obama: Honestly, I need to watch his speech over again because I was a little choked up (yes, even the heartless get a little weepy now and again), but it was everything I wanted to hear from our next President. It won’t be easy, but I believe he’ll bring this country together in a way unlike any I’ve seen in my short lifetime.

Mitch Daniels: I’m surprised they could build a stage big enough to hold his ego. He won. I get it. But the over-the-top video lead-in, followed by the “Pirates of the Caribbean”-like entry music was a bit much. And his actual speech? Welcome back, Governor Arrogance. A little humility goes a long way. Remember that you still have to work with House Democrats to get your agenda passed. Also, you are not a god.

Jill Long Thompson: It was obvious that Thompson took the loss hard, and her remarks were tinged with emotion, especially at the outset. She gave a nice speech, but it’s too bad she got off the podium and immediately started pointing fingers in her one-on-one interviews with the media. I’m a big fan of personal responsibility; own up to your mistakes. John McCain did in his speech, and Thompson should have, too. If you’re the CEO of a company, you don’t get to blame the administrative assistants when your latest product launch flops.

norman
Nov
3
10:55 AM

Election Predictions

Okay, it’s almost time to count the votes. That means it’s time for predictions. So here goes.

PRESIDENT—Indiana is a real toss-up, with Barack Obama having the best chance to win it for the Democrats for the first time in 44 years. But it would really be only a historical footnote. If Obama means here, it means he would be putting together a landslide victory nationwide. Not necessary a Johnson, Nixon, Reagan type landslide. He can’t do that without Texas, which he isn’t gonna win. But at least an Eisenhower-Bush the First type of landslide. And that seems increasingly likely. Although some polls (not all) show John McCain creeping closer in the popular vote (Ask Al Gore how important that is.), he isn’t making much headway in the Electoral College. Obama has big leads in enough Bush 2004 states to pass 270, while McCain, despite his repeated Pennsylvania appearances, doesn’t seem likely to take away any Kerry 2004 states. And that assumes he holds Ohio and Florida, which is a huge assumption.

WINNER—Obama

GOVERNOR—This race ended in early September when Democrat Jill Long Thompson went off the air for over a month. You can’t win when you’re invisible. And, yes, I know people bring up the Greg Ballard example. He had no money and no visibility, but won because enough people were mad at Bart Peterson. But governor isn’t mayor. Knocking on doors doesn’t cut it in a statewide race. Long Thompson went off the air, of course, because she had no money. And that was because her campaign had been so lackluster up until then. She calculated that enough people were mad at Mitch Daniels that simply spreading the message “I’m not Mitch” would work. It didn’t. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race. But while at least some early polls showed Long Thompson with a chance, the recent ones only disagree on how far ahead Daniels is. Obama’s coattails will make this respectable for Democrats, but that’s about it.

WINNER—Daniels

STATE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT—Polls show Republican Tony Bennett leading Democrat Richard Wood. This will depend largely on coattails.

WINNER—Bennett

ATTORNEY GENERAL—Because of a personal, family-related conflict, I have not covered this race and will not offer a prediction.

7th DISTRICT CONGRESS—Andre Carson has quickly become a more polished campaigner. Meanwhile Gabrielle Campo has been largely invisible since her opening “I Can’t Answer Any Questions Today” news conference. She may be an up-and-comer, but not this year and not this race.

WINNER—Carson

GETTING RID OF TOWNSHIP ASSESSORS—It’s impossible to predict this race, because it’s really 43 separate races in the state’s biggest townships. Even here in Marion County, where eight of the nine townships will have this on the ballot (Decatur wasn’t big enough and is already losing its township assessor), it isn’t a single race. It will be decided separately in each township, which means you could have any possible combination of townships with and without assessors.

jennifer
Nov
2
9:04 PM

With One Day To Go, Daniels To Finally Acknowledge McCain

Gov. Mitch Daniels, who pretty much threw his own party’s presidential nominee under the bus last month, will introduce John and Cindy McCain at their brief airport appearance tomorrow.

Daniels had a campaign presence at but personally skipped fellow Gov. Sarah Palin’s wingnut get-togethers in Indiana, but way back when, insiders will remember he was a staunch McCain backer.

So, why is he suddenly showing up at the tail end of the campaign? A few thoughts:

No harm, no foul: Looking at the electoral map, McCain is probably going to lose on Tuesday. Daniels is likely to win and win big. What the heck does he care if he stands next to McCain and plays nicey-nice with the partisans?

One day to go: Daniels’ intro will be swallowed up by the larger story that McCain finally came back to Indiana, which will be swallowed up by the larger story that the election is on Tuesday. At best, it’s a media blip.

Full recovery: Daniels is feeling cocky enough to show up in Statehouse and statewide candidates’ television spots and mail pieces. His approval rating, after months of advertising and a politically impotent opponent, has rebounded. Where he was a drag on the ticket two years ago, he might actually be able to help McCain in the final 24 hours.

Boredom: Election eve is a stressful time for any politico. Maybe Daniels just wanted to get out of the house.

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