Earlier this year, I wrote about NBC’s scheduling of Jay Leno five nights a week at 10PM.  At that time, I thought it could go either way.  It would be brilliant or a bust.

The early results, for the past three weeks, looks like, at least in the short term, it goes into the “bust” column.  It did start out strong – against reruns.  But when the new shows on ABC, NBC and Fox premiered the week of September 21, the audience moved away from the Peacock network.

Locally, a comparison of the same three weeks last year to this year show household ratings for the 10PM hour down 38% in Indianapolis.  The late news on the NBC affiliate, which depends to some extent on Leno’s lead-in audience,  is down 25%.

Nationally, NBC is down about 25% in households, but in the important Adults 18-49 demographic category they’re down 41%.  And, that’s the group advertisers crave.  There is no demographic data for Indianapolis at this time, but it’s probably not good news.

NBC knew it would be tough sledding against first-run dramas and that over the long run, Leno with 46 weeks of original episodes, believed it would prevail over the broadcast networks when they went into reruns.

Maybe it will evenutally be better on the bottom line for General Electric, parent company of NBC/Universal.  But, it looks like bust from here.

I have a good friend in the public relations business in Indianapolis that has simple advice for his clients caught in a tight spot – Tell The Truth.  And be quick about it.  No spinning allowed.

But I don’t think he would have advised David Letterman to handle his indiscretions they way he did.  Letterman, allegedly being extorted by a CBS employee, did tell the truth, using his late night show last Thursday to admit that he had sex with several female employees who worked for his production company, Worldwide Pants Incorporated.  He’s continued over the past few days to continue addressing the issue with comedic asides, not the contrition one would expect.

So far, there hasn’t been a lot of fallout. It’s great for ratings.  I’m sure CBS would have preferred it happening in November.  That’s  when the next important Nielsen sweeps period occurs.

It’s a serious issue. Even though the Worldwide Pants employees have not complained, the risk of claims that they were coerced because of fear of losing employment or favor opens a path that makes lawyers drool.  And, the other employees start seeing disproportionately favorable treatment to other employees, based on you-know-what.

The alleged extortionist has an attorney whose public statements this week sound like Letterman (and CBS) are in for a very uncomfortable 2010.

The public, so far, is giving Letterman a pass. I’m sure Bill Clinton and Mark Sanford are chuckling right now.  Not to mention Sarah Palin.